Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a wildly successful road trip, the surging Minnesota Twins return to Target Field this evening to play the first of three consecutive matchups with the Seattle Mariners.
The Twins are back home after going 6-1 on a week-long trek and winning the final five games of the swing. A prolific offense has carried the reigning American League Central champions during this successful stretch, as Minnesota has racked up an eye-popping 53 runs over the course of those five victories.
Ron Gardenhire's squad continued to swing the bats well in Wednesday's 6-4 triumph over Kansas City, as the Twins built a 5-0 lead after 3 1/2 innings and held off a late Royals comeback attempt.
Delmon Young began Minnesota's barrage by belting a three-run homer in the first inning and finished 3-for-5 for the Twins, who have won seven of their last eight overall and trail Chicago by only 1 1/2 games for first place in the AL Central. Jason Repko and Denard Span also collected three hits on the afternoon, with Repko adding a solo home run and Span contributing an RBI single.
Brian Duensing (4-1) did his part as well in Wednesday's win, with the Minnesota starter holding the Royals to two runs over the game's first six innings. Kansas City scored twice against the Twins bullpen in the eighth to pull within 5-4, but closer Jon Rauch threw a scoreless ninth to preserve the lead and nail down his 21st save of the year.
Minnesota has now prevailed in 10 of their 14 contests since the All-Star break and has been tough to beat at Target Field all throughout the season, having amassed a 30-20 record thus far at the first-year ballpark.
"We gotta keep up with the other guys now," said Gardenhire after Wednesday's result. "We have to play our schedule out and hopefully get some streaks together."
Young has played a big role in the Twins' recent tear. The outfielder is currently riding an eight-game hitting streak and is batting a scorching .540 (20-for-37) with three homers and 15 RBI during that span.
The Twins were also able to add some relief help on Thursday's off day, acquiring closer Matt Capps from Washington in exchange for well-regarded catching prospect Wilson Ramos. The 26-year-old Capps ranked fourth in the National League with 26 saves at the time of the deal and earned his first career All-Star nod this season by posting a 2.74 ERA in 47 appearances.
Minnesota beat up on doormats Baltimore and Kansas City during its successful trip and gets to face another favorable opponent tonight in the last-place Mariners, a team that's amassed a horrid 6-20 record thus far in July and comes in having been swept in a four-game series by the White Sox in Chicago.
After dropping a 9-5 decision in Thursday's finale, Seattle is now a poor 15-36 on the road this season.
The Mariners did receive three doubles and three runs scored from All-Star Ichiro Suzuki and a 2-for-3, two-RBI showing from Casey Kotchman in last night's loss, but starting pitcher David Pauley (0-3) lasted only 2 2/3 innings and was rocked for four runs and six hits.
You have to get ahead of hitters," said Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu, whose club walked five batters and served up four home runs on the evening. "When you fall behind, especially against a club with their power potential, you run into trouble."
Seattle has given the Twins some problems this year, however, having taken three of four meetings between the teams at Safeco Field earlier this season. The Mariners have also won five of the past six games in this overall series.
Doug Fister will take the mound for the Mariners in tonight's opener and will try once more to reclaim his early-season form. After producing a 3-1 record and a spectacular 1.72 ERA over his first seven starts, the towering right- hander has gone 0-5 with a 5.17 ERA in nine outings and spent nearly a month on the disabled list due to a fatigued throwing shoulder.
Fister has particularly struggled since returning from the injury, although he did give the Mariners five effective innings against Boston this past Sunday. The Fresno State product surrendered a pair of runs on seven hits and did not get a decision in an eventual 4-2 Seattle win.
Like his team, the 26-year-old has not performed well on the road this season, having put together a 1-3 record and a 5.74 ERA in six away starts. Fister also had an undesired outcome in a home assignment against the Twins on May 31, when he was reached for five runs in 7 2/3 innings to receive a loss.
In contrast, Minnesota's Scott Baker has usually been very good when pitching at home, with the right-hander bringing a 6-3 record and 3.90 ERA over 10 Target Field starts into tonight's tilt.
Baker wasn't sharp in his last Minneapolis appearance, however, yielding six runs and 10 hits before being removed after 4 2/3 innings of a July 19 loss to Cleveland. He rebounded by tossing a strong seven frames to defeat Baltimore on the road this past Saturday, though, with the Orioles managing just two runs on four hits and fanning eight times against the Oklahoma State product.
The 28-year-old will be out to improve upon a 1-3 record and 4.60 ERA over seven lifetime starts against Seattle when he toes the rubber this evening.
<< With trade rumors swirling, ChiSox start set with Oakland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox have been an awfully tough team to
beat over the past two months, and the current American League Central leaders
have been virtually invincible at U.S. Cellular Field during that time period.
Chicago
<< Giants send Lincecum to the hill versus Dodgers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Lincecum goes after win No. 11 this evening when the
San Francisco Giants open a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers
at AT&T Park.
Lincecum has not received a decision in either of his last two outing
<< Slumping Diamondbacks visit Mets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The slumping Arizona Diamondbacks head to New York in hopes
of notching a rare road win when they open a three-game weekend series with
the Mets at Citi Field.
The Diamondbacks, now 24 games off the pace in the National Le
<< Yankees open key set with Rays; A-Rod tries again for 600th homer
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez's quest to become the youngest player in
baseball history with 600 home runs takes him to St. Petersburg where the New
York Yankees open a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana
Field.
Ro
2010 FBS Positional Analysis: Linebackers >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They are free to roam the middle of the
field, looking to lay the lumber on the ball-carriers and receivers that dare
to enter their domain. The job of the linebacker is to be instinctual, to be in
the right
Flames ink White >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Flames signed defenseman Ian White
to a one-year contract on Friday.
White was part of the blockbuster deal at last season's trade deadline that
saw blueliner Dion Phaneuf heading from Calgar
Oswalt to make debut as red-hot Phils head to Washington >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second straight season, the Philadelphia Phillies
have acquired one of the top available pitchers prior to the non-waiver trade
deadline. The timing couldn't be better, as the club has used a season-high
winning strea
Astros to unveil Happ in opener with Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nobody expects new Houston Astros starter J.A. Happ to
replace the traded Roy Oswalt, yet that is what the young left-hander must do
tonight.
One day after getting dealt to the Astros in a deal that sent Oswalt to the
Phi
Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds and the betting line and figure out where they’ve been and where they are going to go.
MySportsbook.com put up the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds late on Sunday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 6.5 points and a total betting line at 47.5 points.
Since then, however, the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds have seen a good deal of movement and you’ll want to be on top of where they are likely to move to make sure you get the best line value for the big game.
Since opening, the Super Bowl 2009 betting lines went to Steelers -7 in the span of roughly 3 hours but were quickly bought back down just minutes later to 6.5 again.
After that is took about 5-6 more hours before the betting line went back to -7 where it has sat for a while now and is likely to remain. The opening betting total of 47.5 was bet down right after the line became available and went to 47 within minutes.
Roughly a day later it has been bet even further down to the 46.5 tally it currently is set at.
Roughly 60% of gamblers seem to be on the Cardinals here so the point spread will be bet down and a 7.5 would not last very long at all with many taking the early 6.5 in hopes of finding a potential middle in the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds.
If you like Arizona and see a 7.5, I’d take it as soon as possible because it’s unlikely to last. For Pittsburgh backers, the -7 might be the best you’ll be able to find but a 6.5 is definitely possible close to game time.
Regarding the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds for the total, most tracked gamblers are already on the over and with those who took the under 47.5 already securing a middle on the over 46.5, the only way I see it moving is back up to 47 so if you like the over, I’d recommend betting now.
Get free Super Bowl XLIII Betting from top rated online sportsbook MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online Super Bowl betting with credit cards
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting