Spartans can claim share of Big Ten title with win over Wolverines

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/07/2010 - East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bitter Big Ten Conference rivals close out the regular season against each other this afternoon in East Lansing, as the Michigan Wolverines come calling on the 11th-ranked Michigan State Spartans.

Michigan has been up and down all season long, coming in at 14-15 overall and 7-10 in conference. The Wolverines blasted Minnesota in their last outing, 83-55, putting the brakes on a three-game slide and giving the team some much- needed confidence heading into this rivalry game. UM is just 3-7 in true road games this year, which includes a 3-5 mark against conference foes.

Michigan State can claim a share of the Big Ten regular-season title with a win today, as the team comes in with an overall record of 23-7 and a league mark of 13-4. The Spartans have been virtually unbeatable at home, logging a 14-2 ledger, the only two setbacks coming against top-10 league rivals Purdue and Ohio State. MSU has won its last two games, the most recent being a 67-65 thriller over Penn State, and has claimed victory in four of its last five overall.

Michigan owns a 91-73 advantage in the all-time series with Michigan State, but the Spartans have won 17 of the last 20 meetings, including 10 straight in East Lansing. MSU slipped by UM in the first encounter this season, escaping Ann Arbor with a 57-56 victory.

Relying heavily on only players to lead the way, the Wolverines are far from an explosive offensive team. In fact, they rank 10th in the conference in scoring (65.0 ppg), and their meager .417 field goal percentage has them sitting ninth. Defensively, Michigan is yielding just 61.6 ppg to rank fourth in the league, and there are only two teams in the conference who defend the three-point shot (.315) better at the moment. Manny Harris ranks third in the Big Ten in both scoring (18.2 ppg) and steals (1.8 spg), and he sits fourth in assists (4.1 apg). He has made more free throws (134) than any of his teammates have attempted at this point. DeShawn Sims (17.1 ppg) is the club's only other double-digit scorer, and both players also work hard on the boards, coming up with a combined 13.8 rpg. Sims made the most of his final home game on Tuesday night, scoring 23 points and grabbing six rebounds to lead Michigan to its 28-point shellacking of Minnesota. Harris added 22 points and Stu Douglass chipped in with 10 for the Wolverines, who shot a sizzling 60.4 percent from the field and drained 8-of-19 three-pointers along the way. One of the more impressive stats from that game is that Michigan committed just four turnovers.

Simply put, Michigan State is a very good team that knows how to play at both ends of the floor. The Spartans, who boast four double-digit scorers at the moment, are averaging 73.1 ppg on 47.6 percent field goal accuracy, and they are giving up just 63.9 ppg on typical shooting efforts of 40.7 percent overall and 32.5 percent from three-point range. MSU leads the Big Ten in assists (17.1 apg). Rebounding has also been huge for coach Tom Izzo's club, which comes into this regular-season finale with a league-best +9.2 rebounding margin. MSU's most productive offensive performer happens to be the reigning Big Ten Player of the Year in junior guard Kalin Lucas, who is shooting 46 percent from the field and averaging 14.9 ppg. Lucas also serves as the team's primary playmaker with his 4.0 apg, and he converts nearly 80 percent of his free throws as well. Raymar Morgan (10.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg), Durrell Summers (10.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Draymond Green (10.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 3.1 apg) complement Lucas perfectly, and all are capable of carrying the team if its star is off his game. Lucas tallied just nine points in 28 minutes of action in the recent win over Penn State, as Morgan (16 points, eight rebounds) and Green (14 points, nine boards, four assists) took control. The Spartans watched as the Nittany Lions dropped nine three-pointers, but held strong in logging a 39-26 edge on the glass, a 36-20 advantage in points in the paint, and a staggering 26-1 margin in bench points.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.