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03/11/2010 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darington Hobson erupted for 28 points and 15 rebounds, carrying No. 8 New Mexico to a hard-fought 75-69 victory over Air Force in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament.
Dairese Gary returned from an early injury and made 14-of-15 free throws to account for most of his 20-point effort for the Lobos (29-3), who set a single-season school record for wins thanks to their 15th straight victory.
New Mexico, the top seed in the tournament, moves on to play the winner of the Colorado State/San Diego State battle.
Tom Fow and Michael Lyons scored 17 and 15 points, respectively, to lead the ninth-seeded Falcons (10-21), whose win over Wyoming on Wednesday was their second in MWC tourney history.
The Falcons, who lost a 59-56 decision at New Mexico less than three weeks ago, again gave the Lobos all they can handle at the Thomas & Mack Center.
A Roman Martinez three-pointer had the favorites up 58-49 with less than 7 1/2 minutes to play, but Lyons' jumper two minutes later cut it to a 61-58 game.
New Mexico pulled away with five straight from the free throw line, and Hobson's acrobatic tip-in provided a 68-58 margin.
Mike McLain's offensive foul followed by two Gary free throws capped the game- sealing 11-0 run with 1:13 remaining, helping New Mexico grind out the surprisingly tough win.
Air Force was on top 13-12 when Todd Fletcher capped a 9-0 run with a three- pointer six minutes into the game. The Falcons went the next seven minutes without scoring, though the Lobos only scored eight during that stretch.
New Mexico's largest lead in the first half was 10, but Evan Washington beat the halftime buzzer with a long deuce to pull the underdogs within 38-31 at halftime.
Fow made two free throws and a three-pointer before Washington's three-point play cut Air Force's deficit to 48-47 with 12:48 to play.
Game Notes
This is New Mexico's second-longest winning streak in school history behind a 17-game streak set in 1967-68...The Lobos have won seven straight over Air Force...Grant Parker, the Falcons' leading scorer with 13.1 ppg, scored just six, while Fletcher and Washington netted 12 and 11, respectively, in defeat...Air Force outshot New Mexico 54.0 percent to 46.8 percent from the floor but were outscored on the foul line, 25-8.
<< Aggies top Nebraska, No. 1 Kansas up next in Big 12 semis
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Donald Sloan finished with 23 points, as
No. 23 Texas A&M defeated Nebraska, 70-64, in the quarterfinals of the Big 12
Tournament.
Khris Middleton added 17 points while B.J. Holmes provided 11 poi
<< Buffalo extends AHL agreement with Portland
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Buffalo Sabres announced on Thursday that
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"Greater Portland has embraced a group o
<< Big Ten Conference Tournament Recaps
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manny Harris scored a team-high 22 points
and pulled down nine rebounds as he led the Michigan Wolverines to a 59-52 win
over the Iowa Hawkeyes in the opening game of the 2010 Big Ten Conference
Tournam
<< Liverpool drops first leg at Lille
Lille, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eden Hazard scored off a free kick with just
five minutes remaining and Lille edged Liverpool 1-0 on Thursday in the first
leg of their Europa League Round of 16 series at Lille Metropole.
Hazard curled a 2
Western Athletic Conference Tournament Recaps >>
Reno, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tai Wesley, one of three players to score 18
points for Utah State, collected 10 rebounds as the Aggies defeated Boise
State, 84-60, in the quarterfinals of the Western Athletic Conference
Tournam
Bears re-sign S Bullocks >>
Lake Forest, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bears signed safety Josh
Bullocks to a one-year tender offer on Thursday.
The 40th pick by New Orleans in the 2005 draft, Bullocks has recorded 327
tackles, six interceptions, 28 p
Raiders cut ties with DT Warren >>
Alameda, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Raiders released defensive tackle
Gerard Warren on Thursday.
The Raiders acquired Warren from the Broncos prior to the 2007 season, but the
6-foot-4, 330-pounder registered just 97 tackles and 10
Schwartzel finds himself alone in front at Doral >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - South Africa's Charl Schwartzel posted a
brilliant, bogey-free, five-under 67 on Thursday to take the first-round lead
of the WGC-CA Championship.
Schwartzel braved tough, windy conditions at the TPC Bl
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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